I analysed completed house sales across BR1–BR7 to find out what buyers are actually paying
Rightmove’s latest House Price Index has generated the sort of headline that understandably gets homeowners’ attention:
London asking prices are falling.
In August 2026, the average price of a newly listed London property was 4.4% lower than the previous month and 3.1% lower than a year earlier. Rightmove also reports that London currently has the greatest choice of homes available to buyers since 2010.
That sounds worrying.
But there is an important distinction.
Rightmove measures asking prices.
In other words, what sellers and their agents are initially hoping to achieve.
I wanted to know something different.
What are buyers actually paying?
So I analysed completed Land Registry house sales across BR1, BR2, BR3, BR4, BR5, BR6 and BR7.
Houses only. Flats excluded.
And the answer is far more nuanced than simply saying:
“House prices are falling.”
Don’t want to read all the statistics?
Here’s the short version.
Across BR1–BR7, completed house values are broadly flat rather than collapsing.
The combined median completed price was:
£620,000 in 2022
£615,000 in 2025
£600,000 so far in 2026
On a more useful rolling 12-month basis, the median has moved from £615,000 to £605,000 — a fall of only 1.6%.
And when I looked at price per square foot, which helps reduce some of the distortion caused by different sizes of houses selling, the market appeared even more stable:
2022: £556 per sq ft
2025: £556
2026 YTD: £548
The real weakness isn’t everywhere.
It’s concentrated in certain postcode districts and, particularly, at the £1.5m+ end of the market.
That’s the headline.
Now let’s look at the evidence.
First, what has Rightmove actually said?
Rightmove reports an average London asking price of £646,451 in August 2026.
That is:
4.4% lower month-on-month
and
3.1% lower year-on-year.
London experienced the largest annual decline of any region in Rightmove’s latest figures.
Rightmove also says that London buyers currently have the largest choice of properties for sale since 2010, meaning sellers are competing harder for attention. The average time to find a buyer in London is currently around 73 days.
That last point matters.
More choice changes buyer behaviour.
When buyers have ten plausible alternatives rather than three, they can afford to be:
more selective,
more price-sensitive,
and less forgiving of properties that appear expensive compared with the competition.
But that still doesn’t necessarily mean the underlying value of every London home has fallen by 3.1%.
Because asking prices and completed prices measure two different things.
Asking price versus actual value
Imagine a house genuinely worth around £950,000.
Last year, its owner might have launched at £1.05m.
This year, perhaps they launch at £995,000.
Rightmove would see a meaningful fall in asking prices.
But if both properties ultimately sell at around £950,000, the underlying market value hasn’t fallen anything like as much.
This is why I wanted to look at Land Registry completed transactions.
They tell us what somebody actually paid.
And across BR1–BR7, the evidence doesn’t currently support the idea of a broad collapse.
What have completed prices actually done?
Across the combined BR1–BR7 house market, the median completed price was:
| Year | Median completed house price |
|---|---|
| 2021 | £560,000 |
| 2022 | £620,000 |
| 2023 | £598,500 |
| 2024 | £600,000 |
| 2025 | £615,000 |
| 2026 YTD | £600,000 |
The market appears to have reached its recent high around 2022, with the quarterly peak occurring in Q3 at approximately £640,000.
From the 2022 annual peak of £620,000 to the incomplete 2026 figure of £600,000, the nominal difference is approximately:
-3.2%
Not insignificant.
But hardly a collapse.
And the rolling 12-month figure is softer still:
-1.6%
But average house prices can be misleading
This is where property statistics get more interesting.
Suppose more £450,000 terraces sell this year and fewer £1.5m detached houses sell.
The overall median price falls.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean the £450,000 terrace or the £1.5m detached house itself has fallen in value.
The mix of properties sold has changed.
So I asked the data to control for house type and bedrooms.
And the simple “prices are falling” story became much less convincing.
Once type and size were considered, there was no consistent decline across the mainstream market.
Semi-detached houses reached a record median in 2025.
Terraced houses reached a record median in the incomplete 2026 data.
Two and three-bedroom values remained close to their recent highs.
The noticeable softness was concentrated amongst larger detached and 5+ bedroom houses, although the incomplete 2026 Land Registry sample means those figures need treating cautiously.
£ per square foot tells another story
One of the measures I pay particular attention to is price per square foot.
It isn’t perfect.
Floor areas often come from EPC records and properties can subsequently be extended.
But it helps us compare the underlying rate buyers are paying rather than just headline house prices.
Across BR1–BR7, median completed £ per sq ft has been remarkably stable:
2022 — £556
2023 — £548
2024 — £537
2025 — £556
2026 YTD — £548
From 2022 to the incomplete 2026 figures, that’s approximately:
-1.4%
That is very different from the impression someone might get from reading that London asking prices are down 3.1% year-on-year.
But property markets are local
This is where I think the analysis becomes particularly useful.
Because BR1 doesn’t necessarily behave like BR2.
BR2 doesn’t necessarily behave like BR3.
And even two roads within the same postcode can perform very differently.
Comparing 2025 with 2026 YTD £ per sq ft:
BR3: -0.2%
BR1: -1.5%
BR6: -2.0%
BR5: -2.4%
BR2: -6.9%
BR4 was actually +3.2%, although the sample is smaller and should therefore be treated cautiously.
For me, BR2 is currently the postcode worth watching most closely.
Why?
Because several different measures point in the same direction.
Median completed price:
£640,000 in 2025 → £592,500 in 2026 YTD
Approximately -7.4%.
£ per square foot:
-6.9%.
Rolling 12-month median:
approximately -5.5%.
When several independent indicators start agreeing, I pay more attention.
BR3 tells a very different story
BR3 is particularly interesting because this is where a lot of dramatic London property headlines can become misleading locally.
Median completed price:
£720,000 in 2025
versus
£710,000 in 2026 YTD
Approximately -1.4%.
But £ per sq ft?
Approximately:
-0.2%
In practical terms, almost unchanged.
So if somebody tells you:
“House prices are falling everywhere,”
my response would be:
Which houses?
Where?
At what price point?
Compared with when?
Because the evidence matters.
The £1.5m+ market is where things get more interesting
There is one part of the data where I do see clearer evidence of softness.
The premium market.
For houses completing at £1.5m+, the median was:
2021 — £1.80m
2022 — £1.835m
2023 — £1.825m
2024 — £1.90m
2025 — £1.7625m
That’s a fall of approximately:
7% from 2024 to 2025
The 2026 median is currently around £1.7975m, but only 16 transactions had registered in this particular sample, so I wouldn’t attach too much significance to it yet.
Land Registry data takes time to arrive.
But the 2024-to-2025 change is much harder to ignore.
And it mirrors something I’ve been seeing in the upper end of the market.
Buyers are there.
But they’re selective.
They compare ruthlessly.
And simply having a beautiful house doesn’t mean they’ll pay an ambitious asking price.
Meanwhile, the sub-£1m market looks remarkably resilient
This is another reason why I wouldn’t use the phrase:
“The market is falling.”
The mainstream sub-£1m market has actually remained firm.
Median completed price:
2024 — approximately £570,000
2025 — £576,000
2026 YTD — £590,000
So we’re increasingly looking at a two-speed market.
The mainstream market is holding up reasonably well.
The premium market has more obvious pressure.
And individual postcode districts can vary considerably.
Can the same house actually sell for less?
Yes.
And these are some of the transactions I find most interesting.
Because comparing the same property removes many of the problems created by sales mix.
A few examples identified in the data include:
82 Heathfield Road, Keston, BR2
£1.90m in 2021
£1.37m in July 2024
-27.9%
132 Barnfield Wood Road, Beckenham, BR3
£1.49m in 2023
£1.25m in February 2026
-16.1%
21 The Chenies, Petts Wood, BR6
£1.55m in 2022
£1.40m in March 2026
-9.7%.
Those are real declines.
But there is an important warning.
A repeat sale isn’t automatically a perfect like-for-like comparison.
A property’s condition may have deteriorated.
Land may have been separated.
The first buyer may have overpaid.
The later transaction may have had unusual circumstances.
Or substantial improvements may have happened between two sales showing an increase.
So individual repeat transactions need investigation rather than simply being turned into headlines.
So is Rightmove wrong?
No.
That’s not my conclusion at all.
Rightmove is measuring something different.
Its evidence suggests seller expectations are moving downwards, particularly in London, against a backdrop of unusually high buyer choice.
My Land Registry analysis suggests that completed house values across BR1–BR7 have not fallen nearly as dramatically.
Both things can be true.
And actually, put together, they potentially tell us something very important.
Sellers may finally be adjusting their expectations to the prices buyers were already prepared to pay.
That is very different from a property crash.
And this connects directly to the Momentum Window™
I’ve recently analysed another 14,348 matured house marketing campaigns across BR1–BR7 looking specifically at what happens during the first 28 days of a property launch.
That research found that homes securing a buyer within 28 days subsequently completed at a median 99.6% of their original asking price, compared with 95.3% for those taking longer.
Only 7.9% of the early group reduced before securing a buyer, compared with 53.9% of homes taking longer than 28 days.
And fall-through rates were 11.7% versus 33.4%.
Put these two investigations together and I think there is a very important message for sellers.
A softer market doesn’t necessarily mean your home has suddenly lost enormous value.
But it does mean buyers may be less tolerant of ambitious pricing.
And if there is more competition for their attention, your launch becomes more important, not less.
Don’t price for yesterday’s market
This is where I believe some sellers get caught.
They look at what a neighbour achieved 18 months ago.
Add something for the new kitchen.
Add something because their garden is better.
Add a little negotiation room.
Then launch.
And wait.
But buyers don’t value your home by adding together your improvements and expectations.
Buyers compare.
They compare your house with everything else available to them today.
And Rightmove says London buyers currently have more choice than they’ve had since 2010.
That’s why I’d be extremely cautious about the old strategy of:
“Let’s start high. We can always reduce later.”
Because you can reduce the price later.
But you cannot recreate the moment when your property was genuinely new to the market.
My view of the market right now
Based on the evidence I’ve analysed, I would describe BR1–BR7 as:
Broadly flat, with selective weakness.
Not booming.
Not collapsing.
The mainstream market appears relatively resilient.
BR1, BR3 and BR6 are holding up reasonably well.
BR2 is showing more convincing evidence of downward pressure.
And the £1.5m+ market is noticeably more price-sensitive than the mainstream market.
And that’s exactly why broad headlines aren’t enough.
If you’re selling a £550,000 terrace in BR5, your market is not the same market as somebody selling a £2m detached house in BR3.
The postcode matters.
The road matters.
The property type matters.
The size matters.
The competition matters.
And above all:
Your launch matters.
Thinking of selling?
If you’re considering selling in Bromley, Beckenham or the surrounding BR postcode area, don’t make your decision based purely on a national headline or an online valuation.
Let’s look at the evidence surrounding your actual property.
What have genuinely comparable homes sold for?
What are buyers comparing you against today?
What is happening to £ per square foot?
Where should the property sit in the market?
And how do we make the most of its Momentum Window™ from day one?
If you’d like me to prepare an evidence-led review of your property and its current market position:
Call or message me on 07855 828 736.
🔎 James Hall | The Property Perfectionist™
Every property leaves clues.
Clarity. Not optimism. Not guesswork. Just evidence.
Data source: Sprift property intelligence incorporating AddressBase, Land Registry Price Paid, portal marketing and EPC information. Figures relate to the rolling periods stated and should be treated as market intelligence rather than a formal valuation. Sold STC data can change where transactions fall through or properties are subsequently re-marketed. £/sq-ft calculations use available EPC floor-area information and should therefore be regarded as indicative. This article represents an independent professional opinion and is not an RICS Red Book valuation.
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